您的位置:首页->研究成果->2017->No.12
研究成果

Nonstationarity and clustering of flood characteristics and relations with the climate indices in the Poyang Lake basin, China

Jianyu Liu, Qiang Zhang*, Vijay P. Singh, Xihui Gu, Peijun Shi

Abstract: The magnitude, occurrence rate and occurrence timing of floods in the Poyang Lake basin were analysed. The flood series were acquired by annual and seasonal maximum flow (AMF) sampling and peaks-over-threshold (POT) sampling. Nonstationarity and uncertainty were analysed using kernel density estimation and the bootstrap resampling methods. Using the relationships between flood indices and climate indices, i.e. El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the potential causes of flooding were investigated. The results indicate that (1) the magnitudes of annual and seasonal AMF- and POT-based sampled floods generally exhibit an increasing tendency; (2) the highest occurrence rates of floods identified were during the 1990s, when the flood-affected crop area, flood-damaged crop area and crop failure area reached the highest levels; and (3) ENSO and IOD are the major climate indices that significantly correlate with the magnitude and frequency of floods of the following year.

Downloading PDF
Copyright © 2019 水文气象研究团队 All rights reserved    京ICP备19009606号-1